Datetime: 2025-07-08 06:39:58 Visit: 5839
Recent trends in the palm oil market: production, exports and price trends
Recently, the palm oil market has become the focus of the global agricultural products sector, and its production, export data changes and price trends have affected the hearts of many investors and industry participants.
In terms of production, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.7716 million tons in May 2025, a month-on-month increase of 5.05% and a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, higher than the previous agency's estimate of 1.73-1.75 million tons. From the plantation data of Malaysia's planting in May, the average FFB yield of the five gardens was 1.48 tons/hectare, which was flat month-on-month and increased by 2.78% year-on-year; the overall oil yield of CPO was 19.89%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous month and 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, and higher than the average level last year. In 2025/26 (October to September of the following year), due to good weather conditions and sufficient fertilizer, the USDA's report shows that Indonesia's palm oil production will increase to 47 million tons, higher than 45.5 million tons in 2024/25. As for Malaysia, the USDA's June global production report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2024/25 (October to September) is expected to be 19.4 million tons, 4% higher than the expected value last month, but 2% lower than 2023/24.
Export data is also eye-catching. According to data from shipping survey agency AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports reached 606,192 tons from June 1 to 15, an increase of 17.8% from 514,713 tons in the same period in May, showing a strong recovery in demand. Data from ITS, another shipping survey agency, showed that Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 47% month-on-month to 635,000 tons, and crude palm oil exports in May increased by more than four times month-on-month. However, Indonesia's palm oil exports also face challenges. Affected by the 32% tariff imposed by the United States on Indonesian goods exported to the United States, Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) exports to the United States may stagnate. In terms of price trends, palm oil futures prices fluctuate frequently. On June 16, Malaysian palm oil futures (FCPOc3) closed at 4,093 ringgits/ton, a nearly three-month high; the main palm oil contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange broke through the 8,400 yuan mark. The recent price increase is mainly due to various factors: the rise in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising 7% in the week of June 14-18, driven by the close connection between biodiesel and crude oil, which has led to an increase in palm oil demand expectations; the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) raised the biofuel blending requirements, driving a general increase in global oil prices; export data was positive, with Malaysian palm oil exports increasing by 26.3% month-on-month in the first half of June (ITS data). However, there are also some uncertainties in the market, such as the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, which may suppress the upward space of palm oil prices.
The future trend of the palm oil market is still full of variables under the multiple influences of production growth, divergence in export data and price fluctuations. Investors and industry participants need to pay close attention to MPOB monthly inventory data, crude oil trends, export dynamics and policy changes in order to seize market opportunities and deal with potential risks in a timely manner.
