Datetime: 2025-07-15 02:01:02 Visit: 6584
Recent trends in the palm oil market
Recently, the palm oil market has attracted much attention in the global oil and fat market, and the data for June and July reflect its complex supply and demand pattern and price trends. As one of the world's important edible vegetable oils, the market dynamics of palm oil not only affect the food industry, but are also closely related to energy, chemical and other fields.
In terms of production, Malaysia's palm oil production showed a downward trend in June. According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 3.85% from June 1 to 15, and the oil yield rate decreased by 0.03%, resulting in a 4% decrease in palm oil production. MPOA expects Malaysia's palm production in June to fall 4.59% to 1.69 million tons from the same period last month. The average Reuters survey expects Malaysia's palm production in June to fall 4.04% month-on-month to 1.7 million tons. The main reasons for the decline in production include seasonal factors and bad weather in some areas that affected the harvesting of oil palm fruits.
Export data showed a strong trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased significantly month-on-month. According to data from shipping agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil products from June 1 to 15 was 662,580 tons, an increase of 137,984 tons from the same period last month, an increase of 26.30%. The export volume for the month was 2.878 million tons, an increase of 2.68% month-on-month and 12.42% year-on-year. The export volume has increased month-on-month since the beginning of this year. As a major importer of palm oil, India's palm oil imports in June surged 61% month-on-month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months. This is mainly due to the Indian government's reduction of the basic import tariff on crude palm oil from 20% to 10% on May 31, and the comprehensive tax rate from 27.5% to 16.5%, which stimulated import demand.
In terms of inventory, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June was 2.036 million tons, a decrease of 9.47% month-on-month and 38.3% year-on-year from the previous month, which was the lowest level in the same period since 2020. The decline in production and the increase in exports are the main factors for the reduction in inventory, which also indicates that the supply of the current palm oil market is relatively tight.
Entering July, the market continued some of the trends in June. According to the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia exported 213,055 tons of palm oil from July 1 to 5, an increase of 51,150 tons from the same period last month, a month-on-month increase of 31.59%. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to US$877.89/ton, which to some extent affected the export cost and market price expectations of palm oil. In terms of price, the price of palm oil fell below the US$1,000/ton mark at the beginning of the month, falling to a minimum of US$960/ton, but with the changes in fundamental data, the market's confidence in palm oil has recovered. In June 2025, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil stabilized and rebounded, with narrowed fluctuations, and the average price in June rose to US$965.83/ton.
Data from the palm oil market in June and July showed that although production declined, strong export demand reduced inventory and the market supply and demand pattern was relatively tight. In the future, the palm oil market will continue to be affected by a variety of factors, including the impact of weather conditions on production, policy changes in major importing countries, and the impact of the global economic situation on consumption. Its price trends and market performance deserve continued attention.
