Datetime: 2025-07-30 01:29:41 Visit: 5928
Analysis of the International Edible Oil Industry Dynamics
Recently, the international edible oil industry has shown various changes in terms of prices, supply and demand, and policies.
In terms of price trends, different types of edible oils have performed differently. Boosted by the rise in U.S. soybean oil, the canola futures price on the Intercontinental Exchange closed higher. Due to the improved profit of biodiesel, the demand for U.S. soybean oil is expected to surge, and its price is bullish in the long run. For palm oil, Malaysia's production recovered in July while exports declined, but India's import volume is expected to maintain growth, which supports its price to a certain extent.
In terms of supply and demand, regarding sunflower oil, the global sunflower seed output is expected to increase in the 2025/2026 season, with Russia's export volume set to rise. However, the growth space for India's sunflower oil demand is limited, so the price for the far month may fall. As for rapeseed oil, the EU is expected to increase production, and Russia's output may also rise. But Ukraine and Australia may see production cuts, and Canada's output is uncertain, making the global supply prospect of rapeseed oil unclear.
In terms of policies, the new tax bill of the U.S. Senate prohibits biofuels produced from raw materials outside North America from applying for the 45Z tax credit, which is beneficial to Canadian rapeseed oil. Meanwhile, Canberra is close to reaching an agreement with Beijing to allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial batches of canola to China. If the agreement is reached, it may have a certain impact on international rapeseed oil prices in the long run.
Overall, global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is lower than that of demand, and global oil inventories may decline. Among them, soybean oil has the smallest gap; palm oil production increase is limited, and the state of weak supply and strong demand will continue; rapeseed oil is expected to have a supply gap. The future trend of the international edible oil industry remains full of variables.
