Datetime: 2025-12-25 05:46:04 Visit: 6678
Argentina's soybean exports are expected to reach a six-year high in the 2025/26 season, but exports of soybean meal and soybean oil will decline.
According to the December report "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Argentina's soybean exports are expected to reach 8.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season, marking the highest level in six years. However, soybean meal and soybean oil exports are projected to decline to 29 million tons and 6.2 million tons, respectively.
The main driver of export growth: export tax adjustments
Over the past year, Argentina has repeatedly adjusted its export tax policies, with the most significant impact being the temporary measure implemented in September 2024: the cancellation of export taxes on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil (originally at rates of 26% and 24.5%, respectively), effective until the end of October or when the declared export sales value of these products reached a $7 billion cap. This cap was breached within just three days, leading to an increase of over 3 million tons in Argentina's soybean export sales registrations for the 2024/25 season (April 2025 to March 2026), with the majority planned for delivery between October and December 2025.
Export decline in soybean oil and meal: constrained supply
The decline in exports of soybean meal and soybean oil is primarily due to reduced soybean production expectations, projected to decrease by 2.6 million tons year-on-year to 48.5 million tons. Additionally, domestic soybean crushing supply from October 2025 to March 2026 will decrease as inventory replenishment before the new crop harvest takes place. As of October 1, soybean inventories are estimated at 23.1 million tons, the second-lowest level for the same period in a decade, second only to the drought-affected 2023.
Supply and Import Supplement
Due to the cancellation of export taxes leading to strong soybean exports, domestic supply will be further constrained before March 2026. Exports reached 1.7 million tons in October, with an additional 2.8 million tons projected to be exported by March 2026. Imports will provide a crucial supplement, with 3.5 million tons expected to be imported from October 2025 to March 2026, totaling 7.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season. Argentina primarily imports soybeans from Paraguay and Brazil, typically starting after the harvest in February. As a result, crushing activity is expected to slow in the coming months.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
